i had the opportunity to share these thoughts with the author of this post
i agree with Mr. Henderson’s comment. systems don’t change that fast or that much without external and extraordinary forces acting on them. the inquiry is therefore whether the underlying data reflects true change or is itself the subject of new collection and calculation methods. consider for example that business bankruptcies at the micro level are often redundant, hence seldom worth filing. many times private corporations are just glorified sole proprietorships: the corporate shell might as well not exist because entrepreneurs are forced into personal liability so the fledgling entity can obtain credit. the result: a landscape littered with “out of business” signs and personal, but few business, filings — instead of taking the business down everyone simply takes their marbles and goes home (or on to the next adventure).